Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Oct 23rd, 2024

Karen McKenzie • October 23, 2024

Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 50 basis points to 3¾%.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

October 23, 2024


The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3¾%, with the Bank Rate at 4% and the deposit rate at 3¾%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.


The Bank continues to expect the global economy to expand at a rate of about 3% over the next two years. Growth in the United States is now expected to be stronger than previously forecast while the outlook for China remains subdued. Growth in the euro area has been soft but should recover modestly next year. Inflation in advanced economies has declined in recent months, and is now around central bank targets. Global financial conditions have eased since July, in part because of market expectations of lower policy interest rates. Global oil prices are about $10 lower than assumed in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR).


In Canada, the economy grew at around 2% in the first half of the year and we expect growth of 1¾% in the second half. Consumption has continued to grow but is declining on a per person basis. Exports have been boosted by the opening of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline. The labour market remains soft—the unemployment rate was at 6.5% in September. Population growth has continued to expand the labour force while hiring has been modest. This has particularly affected young people and newcomers to Canada. Wage growth remains elevated relative to productivity growth. Overall, the economy continues to be in excess supply.


GDP growth is forecast to strengthen gradually over the projection horizon, supported by lower interest rates. This forecast largely reflects the net effect of a gradual pick up in consumer spending per person and slower population growth. Residential investment growth is also projected to rise as strong demand for housing lifts sales and spending on renovations. Business investment is expected to strengthen as demand picks up, and exports should remain strong, supported by robust demand from the United States.


Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.3% in 2026. As the economy strengthens, excess supply is gradually absorbed.


CPI inflation has declined significantly from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September. Inflation in shelter costs remains elevated but has begun to ease. Excess supply elsewhere in the economy has reduced inflation in the prices of many goods and services. The drop in global oil prices has led to lower gasoline prices. These factors have all combined to bring inflation down. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation are now below 2½%. With inflationary pressures no longer broad-based, business and consumer inflation expectations have largely normalized.


The Bank expects inflation to remain close to the target over the projection horizon, with the upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly balancing out. The upward pressure from shelter and other services gradually diminishes, and the downward pressure on inflation recedes as excess supply in the economy is absorbed.


With inflation now back around the 2% target, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by 50 basis points to support economic growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1% to 3% range. If the economy evolves broadly in line with our latest forecast, we expect to reduce the policy rate further. However, the timing and pace of further reductions in the policy rate will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of its implications for the inflation outlook. We will take decisions one meeting at a time. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.


Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 11, 2024. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on January 29, 2025.


Read the October 23rd, 2024 Monetary Report.


Karen McKenzie

Canadian Mortgage Expert

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Buying a Second Property

By Karen McKenzie • March 19, 2025
If you’ve been thinking about buying a second property and you’re looking to put some of the pieces together, you’ve come to the right place! Whether you’re looking to buy a vacation property, start a rental portfolio, or help accommodate a family member, there are many reasons to buy a second property (while keeping your existing property), which might make sense for you! Now, while there are many great reasons to buy a second property, there is also a lot to know as you walk through the process. The key here is to have absolute clarity around your why. Ask yourself, why do you want to buy a second property? This isn’t a decision to be taken lightly or one that should be made too quickly. Buying a second property should be a strategic decision that allows you to accomplish your goals, and it should include an assessment of your overall financial health. So with clear goals in mind, the best place to start the process is to have a conversation with an independent mortgage professional. This will allow you to assess your financial situation, outline the costs, and put together a plan to make it happen. While purchasing a second property is similar to buying a primary residence, there are some key differences. Just because you’ve qualified in the past for your existing mortgage doesn’t mean you’ll qualify to purchase a second property. One key difference is the amount of downpayment you might be required to come up with. A property that is owner-occupied or occupied by a family member on a rent-free basis will require less of a downpayment than if the second property will be used to generate an income. So, depending on the property's intended use, you might have to come up with as much as 25%-35% down. This is where strategic planning comes in. Consider unlocking the equity in your existing home to finance the downpayment to purchase your second home. Here are a few ways you can go about doing that: Securing a new mortgage if you own your property clear title Refinancing your existing mortgage to access additional funds Securing a home equity line of credit (HELOC) Getting a second mortgage behind your existing first mortgage Securing a reverse mortgage The conversation about buying a second property should include assessing your overall financial health, leveraging your existing assets to lower your overall cost of borrowing, and figuring out the best way to accomplish your goals. And as it's impossible to outline every scenario in a simple blog post, if you’d like to discuss your goals and put a plan together to finance a second property, connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Mar 12th, 2025

By Karen McKenzie • March 12, 2025
Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points to 2¾% FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario March 12, 2025 The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. The Canadian economy entered 2025 in a solid position, with inflation close to the 2% target and robust GDP growth. However, heightened trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the United States will likely slow the pace of economic activity and increase inflationary pressures in Canada. The economic outlook continues to be subject to more-than-usual uncertainty because of the rapidly evolving policy landscape. After a period of solid growth, the US economy looks to have slowed in recent months. US inflation remains slightly above target. Economic growth in the euro zone was modest in late 2024. China’s economy has posted strong gains, supported by government policies. Equity prices have fallen and bond yields have eased on market expectations of weaker North American growth. Oil prices have been volatile and are trading below the assumptions in the Bank’s January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The Canadian dollar is broadly unchanged against the US dollar but weaker against other currencies. Canada’s economy grew by 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024 following upwardly revised growth of 2.2% in the third quarter. This growth path is stronger than was expected at the time of the January MPR. Past cuts to interest rates have boosted economic activity, particularly consumption and housing. However, economic growth in the first quarter of 2025 will likely slow as the intensifying trade conflict weighs on sentiment and activity. Recent surveys suggest a sharp drop in consumer confidence and a slowdown in business spending as companies postpone or cancel investments. The negative impact of slowing domestic demand has been partially offset by a surge in exports in advance of tariffs being imposed. Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation. Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices. While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing US tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest. Against this background, and with inflation close to the 2% target, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by a further 25 basis points. Monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war. What it can and must do is ensure that higher prices do not lead to ongoing inflation. Governing Council will be carefully assessing the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs. The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is April 16, 2025. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR at the same time.
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